Small Modular Reactor Market Outlook Report Executive Version and Status Update

Small Modular Reactor Market Outlook Report Executive Version and Status Update

SMRs are uniquely positioned to contribute to meeting demand for small-scale, non-emitting electricity generation.

To help you achieve a comprehensive understanding on the technology and commercial aspects of SMRs, Strategic Insights has developed the 2016 SMR Market Outlook Executive Report and Status Update. Using our proprietary SIMON™ Market Outlook rating system, we evaluate the world’s leading SMR designs for their likelihood of commercialization

Scope

The full 55+ page SMR Market Outlook Executive Version and Status Update is an invaluable tool for organizations that need to understand the latest developments in this market. By buying the full report, you will access the following key data and analysis:

• SMR reactor status updates for the nine leading technologies, including updates on technology, commercial partners, supply chain arrangements, commercial deployment and licensing;

• The latest 2016 Strategic Insights’ Market Outlook Numeric (SIMON™) Rankings for each SMR Vendor and how they compare to each other;

• Status updates and evaluations of SMR deployment in the U.S., Canada, the UK and China;

• Cost updates of SMR technologies, including capital and levelized costs; and

• A forecast of global SMR deployment through to 2035 by region.


Reasons to buy


The SMR Market Report Executive Version and Status Update is a comprehensive guide to opportunities in the global SMR market. It is essential reading for companies considering a business-development play in the small reactor market or for companies that are unaware of the opportunities available to them at this time. The report will help you understand leading SMR technologies and where they will be commercialized.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

SIMON™ MARKET OUTLOOK RATING OF SMRS 7

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 7

LCOE COST 7

GLOBAL MARKET DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS 8

1. INTRODUCTION 10

2. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FROM THE 2015 SMR MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT 10

2.1 TECHNOLOGY 11

2.2 LICENSING 11

2.3 COST 12

2.4 2015 GLOBAL MARKET DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS 12

3. SMR REACTOR STATUS UPDATES 13

3.1 NUSCALE POWER™ 14

3.1.1 Reactor Overview 14

3.1.2 Latest Technical Developments 14

3.1.3 Commercial Partners Update 14

3.1.4 Commercial Deployment 15

3.1.5 NuScale’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 16

3.2 WESTINGHOUSE SMR 17

3.2.1 Reactor Overview 17

3.2.2 Latest Technical Developments 17

3.2.3 Commercial Deployment 18

3.2.4 Westinghouse SMR’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 18

3.3 HOLTEC SMR-160™ 19

3.3.1 Reactor Overview 19

3.3.2 Latest Technical Developments 19

3.3.3 Commercial Deployment 19

3.3.4 Holtec SMR-160’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 20

3.4 BWXT MPOWER™ 21

3.4.1 Reactor Overview 21

3.4.2 Latest Technical Developments 21

3.4.3 Commercial Deployment 21

3.4.4 BWXT mPower™’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 23

3.5 ACP100 (CHINA) 24

3.5.1 Reactor Overview 24

3.5.2 Latest Technical Developments 24

3.5.3 Commercial Deployment 24

3.5.4 ACP100’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 25

3.6 HTR-PM (CHINA) 26

3.6.1 Reactor Overview 26

3.6.2 Latest Technical Developments 26

3.6.3 Commercial Deployment 26

3.6.4 HTR-PM’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 26

3.7 CAREM (ARGENTINA) 27

3.7.1 Reactor Overview 27

3.7.2 Latest Technical Developments 27

3.7.3 Commercial Deployment 27

3.7.4 CAREM’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 28

3.8 SMART (KOREA) 29

3.8.1 Reactor Overview 29

3.8.2 Latest Technical Developments 30

3.8.3 Commercial Deployment 30

3.8.4 SMART’s 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 30

3.9 KLT-40S (RUSSIA) 31

3.9.1 Reactor Overview 31

3.9.2 Latest Technical Developments 31

3.9.3 Commercial Deployment 31

3.9.4 KLT-40S 2016 SIMON™ Market Outlook Rating 32

4. SUMMARY EVALUATION OF LEADING SMR DESIGNS 33

4.1.1 Comparison Market Outlook Score (SIMON™) for Likelihood of Commercialization 34

5. SELECT BUYER COUNTRY UPDATES 35

5.1 UNITED STATES 35

5.1.1 Government Support for SMRs 35

5.1.2 U.S. Clean Power Plan 35

5.1.3 Updates in SMR Regulatory Activity 36

5.1.4 Industry Support for SMRs 36

5.1.5 SMR Commercialization in the U.S.A. 36

5.2 CANADA 38

5.2.1 Government Support for SMRs 38

5.2.2 SMR Commercialization in Canada 38

5.3 UNITED KINGDOM 41

5.4 CHINA 43

5.4.1 Government Support for SMRs 43

5.4.2 SMR Commercialization in China 46

6. SMR ECONOMICS AND COST 48

6.1 CAPITAL COST 48

6.2 LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY 49

7. GLOBAL SMR MARKET OUTLOOK 51

7.1 SMR FORECAST DEVELOPMENT METHODOLOGY 51

7.1.1 Low Case Scenario 53

7.1.2 High Case Scenario 55

7.1.3 Medium Case Scenario 56

LIST OF TABLES


TABLE 1: STRATEGIC INSIGHTS' NINE LEADING SMRS 10


TABLE 2: 2016 SMR TECHNOLOGY COMPARISON UPDATE 13


TABLE 3: TECHNICAL SUMMARY OF LEADING SMR DESIGNS 33


TABLE 4: AGING COAL PLANTS 300 MW AND UNDER IN CHINA THAT MAY BE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES TO BE REPLACED WITH SMRS 45


TABLE 5: NEW ENTRANTS WITH ACTIVE PARTICIPATION IN THE IAEA PROGRAM ON SMR 52

LIST OF FIGURES


FIGURE 1: STRATEGIC INSIGHTS MARKET OUTLOOK NUMERIC (SIMON™) SMR SCALE 7


FIGURE 2: RELATIVE SIMON™ RANKING OF LEADING SMR DESIGNS (2015 SMR MARKET OUTLOOK) 11


FIGURE 3: SINGLE NUSCALE NSSS 14


FIGURE 4: NUSCALE REACTOR PLANT LAYOUT 14


FIGURE 5: WESTINGHOUSE SMALL MODULAR REACTOR 17


FIGURE 6: HOLTEC SMR-160 REACTOR OVERVIEW 19


FIGURE 7: MPOWER™ REACTOR CORE 21


FIGURE 8: ACP100 REACTOR 24


FIGURE 9: HTR-PM REACTOR 26


FIGURE 10: CAREM REACTOR PRESSURE VESSEL 27


FIGURE 11: SMART REACTOR 29


FIGURE 12: KLT-40S REACTOR 31


FIGURE 13: RELATIVE SIMON™ RATING OF LEADING SMR DESIGNS (2016) 34


FIGURE 14: FORECAST OF UK’S ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND DEMAND (TWH) TO 2035 41


FIGURE 15: DISTRICT HEATING NEEDS IN CHINA 44


FIGURE 16: TOTAL AVERAGE UPFRONT CAPITAL COST OF LARGE AND SMALL REACTORS (US$ MILLIONS) 49


FIGURE 17: U.S.-BASED SMR ESTIMATED LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH LCOE (US$/KWH) 50


FIGURE 18: LOW SCENARIO SMR FORECAST – INCREMENTAL CAPACITY BY 2035 54


FIGURE 19: HIGH CASE SCENARIO – INCREMENTAL CAPACITY BY 2035 56


FIGURE 20: MEDIUM CASE SCENARIO - INCREMENTAL CAPACITY BY 2035 57


FIGURE 21: GLOBAL MARKET DEPLOYMENT OF SMRS, MEDIUM CASE SCENARIO (2035) 58


FIGURE 22: GLOBAL SMR DEPLOYMENT MAP, MEDIUM CASE SCENARIO SMR UPTAKE (2035) 58

NuScale Power LLC

BWXT Technologies Inc.

Holtec International

Westinghouse Electric Company

Fluor Corporation

ARES Corporation

Ultra Electronics

Enercon

Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre

Bechtel Corporation

Chinergy

CNNC

INVAP/CNEA

JSC OKBM Afrikantov

KAERI

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